Housing Supply Outlook
With the peak selling season behind us, current numbers show a normal seasonal slow-down in most market segments and neighborhoods. Metrics to watch include prices, inventory and demand indicators. For the 12-month period spanning December 2013 through November 2014, Pending Sales in the Western Upstate region were up 7.4 percent overall. The price range with the largest gain in sales was the $200,001 to $300,000 range, where they increased 11.6 percent.
The overall Median Sales Price were up 2.3 percent to $137,000. The property type with the largest price gain was the Condos segment, where prices increased 5.3 percent to $100,000. The price range that tended to sell the quickest was the $100,001 to $150,000 range at 95 days; the price range that tended to sell the slowest was the $300,001 and Above range at 145 days.
Market-wide, inventory levels were up 4.8 percent. The property type that gained the most inventory was the 4 Bedrooms or More segment, where it increased 6.3 percent. That amounts to 11.0 months supply for Single-Family homes and 9.7 months supply for Condos.
With 2015 near, some are pontificating about a potential change in interest rates. With virtually no inflation, rates will likely remain low for most of 2015 but could flirt with 5.0 percent toward the end of next year. Construction permits and housing starts have upward momentum, which is news in some areas but familiar in others. Prices should continue their ascent but at a tempered pace compared to recent years, which helps preserve affordability for first-time buyers.
New Listings were up 8.0 percent to 459. Pending Sales decreased 25.9 percent to 163. Inventory grew 4.8 percent to 3,369 units.
Prices were still soft as Median Sales Price was down 3.0 percent to $134,298. Days on Market increased 14.0 percent to 114 days. Months Supply of Inventory was down 1.8 percent to 11.0 months, indicating that demand increased relative to supply.
It has largely been another recovery year in 2014, yet mortgage credit and student debt remain obstacles even as the U.S. leads the global economy toward recovery. As this recovery matures, many metrics are approaching a healthy balancing point. Rates have remained much lower than most forecasters expected, and inventory levels finally started rising in most areas as sellers generally listed more properties as a result of stronger prices. Job growth should continue and wage growth is expected to pick up.
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